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 Posted 7/18/2006 12:26 AM |
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Forum Guru
Group: Forum Members
Active: 1/15/2007
Posts: 25 |
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all the books etc say your odds of hitting the flop are 1 in 3 or so.
why then is it that i rarely hit the flop but my opponents seem always to hit it?
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slap
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| Posted 7/18/2006 12:42 AM |
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Forum Guru
Group: Forum Members
Active: 5/9/2008
Posts: 30 |
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hi slap - bit frustrated? your chance of hitting the flop is exactly the same as your opponents :-) there are of course hands you can play where it's not so important that the flop hits you....and of course there are positions you can be in in a game where it doesn't matter whether the flop hits you or not. i'd recommend dan harringtons books volume 1 and 2 if you are looking for a 'numbers' take on the game of nl holdem. his books focus on tournament play so if it's cash you're playing you may need to look elsewhere. to end; are you sure your opponnents are hitting the flop or are they just making it look like they are? we can all have some runs of poorer luck where it seems like nothing hits so hang in there, do some more reading and i'm sure things will start to drop into place soon. good luck! |
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| Posted 7/18/2006 12:56 AM |
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Forum Guru
Group: Forum Members
Active: 1/15/2007
Posts: 25 |
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frustrated? yes!!
seriously in my last 40 or so heads up situations i have had my chips in 'in front' but only won about 25% of the hands.
typical examples, sb pushes v my ak i'm all-in he calls with 35 suited and wins....next hand push with qq and he re-raises so all-in turns over 72o and wins.
seems like any coin flip situation in heads up the deck is stacked against me.
2 years as a winning player to a 6 month downswing is making me grumpy 
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slap
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Supreme Being
Group: Forum Members
Active: 6/29/2008
Posts: 628 |
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okay, take a deep breath and say it with me.....
variance.
feel better? you are guaranteed to have bad runs. it is certain. even if you are phil ivey you will have bad runs. this is variance. learn to love it because you will be on the other side once in a while. you just never realise it, because people always have the mindset that
i'm playing really well at the moment'
when variance is working for them, and
'man, i'm getting so many bad beats' when variance is against them. |
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| Posted 7/24/2006 10:42 AM |
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Advanced Member
Group: Forum Members
Active: 8/13/2007
Posts: 20 |
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no. that theory stuff is great on paper but doesn't work that way here. he is right, something funny is going on.
over the last three days i played about 1,000 hands and several times per orbit there would be 3 to a flush on the board. at least once per orbit there were 4 suited cards in the middle of the table. nearly every time i or one of the other tight players would flop a hand and start betting, a fish who called the pre-flop raise with 25s would catch his flush and take the pot by nearly every time i am talking in excess of 90% of the time.
i flopped flush draws myself during that same time. i played 15-20 of the better ones, i do not call with 25s, i connected one (1) time.
i am a tight player, but this "variance" as the apologists for pacific will call it has caused me the worst 3 day loss of my life. i stupidly kept expecting everything to even out, as it would with an honest deal, but no. just a few minutes ago i tried one more time. 1st hand and my set of jacks is busted by the river flush for mr. 25 who has been calling bets for 3 streets. he knew it was coming. i should have too.
if i can work off the bonus with anything left - very doubtfull - i will be gone from this flushing hell. variance? no, something very fishy is going on.the best player in the world can not beat a stacke |
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Supreme Being
Group: Forum Members
Active: 6/29/2008
Posts: 628 |
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| Quote: no. that theory stuff is great on paper but doesn't work that way here. he is right, something funny is going on.over the last three days i played about 1,000 hands and several times per orbit there w... |
hmm. so pacific poker is out to get you personally. their software is designed to make people hit their flushes more often against you, and make you hit your flushes less often. fascinating.
i never would have thought that a company as large as 888 would be simply set up to specifically target and destroy one small individual, but obviously i was wrong.
please, if anyone else is experiencing this i think we need to know about it now so please post in this thread. are timm and slap alone in this or have others experienced such injustices? we must know! |
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Forum Guru
Group: Forum Members
Active: 1/15/2007
Posts: 25 |
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at no point did i suggest that pacific is rigged......
i accept the variance theory....
just not nice when the cards run against you for so long.....
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slap
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| Posted 7/25/2006 10:57 PM |
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Supreme Being
Group: Forum Members
Active: 6/29/2008
Posts: 628 |
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| Quote: at no point did i suggest that pacific is rigged......i accept the variance theory....just not nice when the cards run against you for so long..... |
no worries, the sarcasm was directed at timm. you just sound frustrated, he sounds like he really believes 'the conspiracy'.
p.s. variance is not a theory, its a theorem. a theory is unproven. variance is an inherent property of mathematics and requires no formal proof. |
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| Posted 7/25/2006 11:01 PM |
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Advanced Member
Group: Forum Members
Active: 8/13/2007
Posts: 20 |
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i'm confused then. why are casinos regulated and controled in the u.s. and most countries? any decent casino is a money machine. they don't have to cheat. is everyone who ever suggested that a casino was cheating, before regulation, a conspiracy nut?
these casinos are run out of boiler rooms in whichever third world country can get them good cable connections. the same places incidently where all of those emails about helping sneak $6 mil. out of nigeria start.
ideally these outfits need full tables and more deposits then withdrawls to succeed. there are a finite number of people to play so someday the exploding growth may end. keeping bad players alive fills tables. also taking money from players who might withdraw and getting it to players too bad to ever accumulate much, decreases withdrawls.
tracking a players relative skill is easy, poker tracker and poker office do it. that combined with knowledge of how a bankroll is moving make it easy to decide who needs a boost and who needs a hit.
and since it is all based on probability, no single hand or even series of hands can prove anything. you would have to actually read the code line by line to prove the deal was programmed this way. on the other hand, without reading the code you cant prove it isn't either.
let the sarcastic response commence.the best player in the world can not beat a stacke |
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| Posted 7/25/2006 11:24 PM |
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Supreme Being
Group: Forum Members
Active: 6/29/2008
Posts: 628 |
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in that case i must be a terrible player. i must be absolutely shocking. either that, or i'm the best player in the world and i can beat a stacked deck.
are you trying to say that you are awesome and pacific is stopping you from making money because of this? |
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