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Heat 17 at the open
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Posted 5/6/2009 4:39 PM


Supreme Being
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Group: Forum Members
Active: 2/5/2010
Posts: 2,033

For sure Inc, your post is entirely accurate there.

My point was that I spent a while analysing the hand, putting up a pretty lengthy reply with some high level thinking (including some of the stuff that, I imagine, went through Saab's head).

In return I got a one-line reply that seemed a little stubborn to me from a mod - someone new members look to for advice.

I'm not having a go at Aegis in particular - just the general mindset of people who visit the strategy forum on 888. They need to be encouraged to read posts like these, not put off.

I don't need any further backing to know I'm right with that analysis. Aegis is also right with his preferred fold pre-flop, that IS the correct play. But to say Saab should have folded after getting re-raised all-in is just criminally wrong and is showing a large disregard for pot odds - the understanding of which is one of the first key tools you should gain in becoming a good poker player.

A new member opens this thread; reads the replies; looks at my first lengthy one; decides not to read it because it's a little long; but does look at subsequent posts for comments about it to see if it's worth reading.

The first reply he sees is from a mod: "Well we all have our own opinions".

The new member then thinks that I've typed a load of garble that isn't worth his time and misses out on some key thinking points.

I'm not trying to force my view of the game on anyone, this example is more of a general thinking process. If you got Michael Keiner to analyse this hand in his next newsletter article (he was at the table after all), he would agree with me.

Now when I say this:

Topics like this one are why the think tank threads on this forum never progress beyond level one thinking. People run their KK into AA pre-flop and then post to ask whether they should have folded.

It's just an observation which is further backed up by Aegis' post. Someone posts a reply which isn't on the first or second level of thinking and everyone else gets brain-freeze.

You've posted some terrific articles on here in the past Inc - and they sink to the bottom of the page with 70 views and no replies. Why? Because they appear too complex to people.

If an article isn't telling them precisely what to do with their AA or Q7s, they don't want to open their mind to it. There IS a tonne of material on here which could be put to good use by 888 forum members, but they become ignorant to it when it spans more than two paragraphs. Thankfully Aaron's topics seem to be immune to this, and that's a good thing because he has some excellent material that should definitely be read by any newcomers.

But new members need to be encouraged to read stuff like Aaron's and the analysis available here, not put off. It isn't a lot of time to give up to add an extra tool to your game.

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Posted 5/6/2009 4:41 PM


Supreme Being
Supreme Being

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Active: 2/5/2010
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PS - QFT

  'Poker - takes five minutes to learn and a lifetime to master' - Doyle Brunson.

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Posted 5/6/2009 5:31 PM


Supreme Being
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Active: Yesterday @ 10:09 PM
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L67 not saying this for any other reason than its true,i read all things that are put by anyone who has achieved such things in the game as yourself to name but a few,i do agree with some of what you say on this post and i would just add i have been playing poker less than a year so i am a "newbie"now anyone who goes into the said threads and doesnt read all and i mean all that is there perhaps are not ready to be reading such things,just a thought,btw keep posting have found the stuff from you aarolt and idio...to be invaluable and the meaning of the word invaluable to me is simply that "no amount of money can buy experience and shared experience" Dan











Ive got something to say, its better to burn out than fade away
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Posted 5/7/2009 1:43 PM


Supreme Being
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Active: 12/21/2009
Posts: 16,500

Very interesting read, L67C - thanks for sharing your thoughts.  You know me, I like to speak my mind and also to play devil's advocate, so it isn't too often that I am agreeing with anyone, lest alone you!

In particular, this interests me:

You've posted some terrific articles on here in the past Inc - and they sink to the bottom of the page with 70 views and no replies. Why? Because they appear too complex to people.

If an article isn't telling them precisely what to do with their AA or Q7s, they don't want to open their mind to it. There IS a tonne of material on here which could be put to good use by 888 forum members, but they become ignorant to it when it spans more than two paragraphs

As we all know, Aaronlt has the ability to turn even the most complex of strategies into easily-digestible chunks, so he is indeed immune to this, but some of us, witter on too much.

Mmmm, plenty of food for thought~!

Cheers!

 


“Whatever you do, or dream you can, begin it. Boldness has genius and power and magic in it.>< STRONG>

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Posted 9/15/2009 5:14 PM


Forum Guru
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Quote: PS - QFT 'Poker - takes five minutes to learn and a lifetime to master' - Doyle Brunson .

Great quote very true too

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Posted 12/27/2009 9:07 PM
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*note: thanks to ray for helping me edit this post so that 888 will be able to read it. Note, that there are no fullstops, and decimal points are replaced by hyphens.*

Hi Everyone, first post here.

Thanks for everyone's input - certainly was a fun hand to play, Was a little heart rending on table, but funny now when I watch it on tv

I only just received the dvd last week, and I watched it for the first time (hate watching poker on tv, so many baaaad players) LOL

Found this hilarious and thought it a great production, and intend on playing again this year if they will have me, so hopefully you guys will get to critique my hand again

Lets get to the analysis of the hand - probably what you want to hear from me

I guess my thinking is, Wow I have 95s Its a monster I know this will definitely be better than any UTG raising range, I know, i'll put my tourney life in jeopardy and put in a raise that i can’t fold from, considering stacksizes, after this guy has committed his stack, This is sure to beat JTs, 66+ or better, I know, i should play this to trap em, Especially when this is on tv, and I'm playing less lag than usual since I really would like to look less like a crazy monkey wearing a red hat


What i'm saying in that previous dialogue (cheeky as it was - am in a joking mood) was that I knew this guys hand range was very weak, as he had increased his vpip, pfr frequency, and he had fold equity + I spoke with him during the break and he gave off some physical tells + some hands he played particularly weak prior ie his QTo hand where I flop flush said that this raise was significantly profitable

As to Liam waking up with ak behind me well this is what I was thinking about that time S*** LOL just kidding


Actually what I thought was, Liam needs a monster to play this hand, I think somewhere around top 3-5% of hands I actually thought he SHOULD fold ak, but knew he never would, (maths to follow below) - i thought this on table, but haven't done the maths til now, so we will both be very interested, But as a general rule, people find it very difficult to fold ak preflop shorthanded

Lets assume liam goes to centre with TT+, AKs, AKo that makes it 3-5% Source= pokerstove So odds him finding this hand = pretty damn small

Considering this is essentially a satellite with 2 prizes, lets look at his choices, (I did not make the two satellite seats the same value since one goes through the other is second chance so I put in a ratio of 2 point 1)


situation was:

Keiner 203,000
Me 141,000
Flood 141,000
Medwell 115,000

this means that assuming that the seat which goes through has 2 point 1 over the seat that doesn't, then the icm value is as follows



Player Name
ICM Equity
Michael Keiner 0-3216
1st: 0-338, 2nd 0-288, 3rd 0-227, 4th 0-146, 5th 0-000
Me 0-2394
1st: 0-235, 2nd 0-248, 3rd 0-260, 4th 0-257, 5th 0-000
Liam Flood 0-2394
1st: 0-235, 2nd 0-248, 3rd 0-260, 4th 0-257, 5th 0-000
Gary Medwell 0-1997
1st: 0-192, 2nd 0-216, 3rd 0-254, 4th 0-339, 5th 0-000


source ICM calculator

Liams current value according to the caculations is 0-2394 - this is prior to the hand

When the action reaches him, he is in for 6k - his big blind, If he folds his icm value is 0-2304 since medwell would fold and I would grow my stack by 30k (blinds + medwells raise)

So equity of fold is 0-2304

Equity of all in is as follows, Since medwell is playing like a silly monkey, who is easily exploitable and cannot defend resteals of his blinds due to his frequency we should assume he folds to a raise and reraise and forced call, Even if he had a real hand, i think due to bubble theory he has to fold most premium hands, Though he is kinda dumb, and may play incorrectly.

If he shoves, there are two alternatives, He wins, or loses, At this stage, he hasn't seen me play crazy yet, so must assume I have at minimum medium to premium range, since I reraised a utg, despite it being 4 handed, As a result for his calculations we can safely assume he has to think my range is like 99+,AJs+,AKo, (4-5%) source = pokerstove

his hand vs this range is as follows


Board
Dead

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0, 55-085% 45-06% 10-03% ( 99+, AJs+, AKo )
Hand 1, 44-915% 34-89% 10-03% ( AKo )

IE, he has 55% equity

so, 45% of the time, he has 0 icm value, and 55% he wins the pot, Lets see how much his icm is if he wins, He must assume 0% fold equity since I am being given 3 to 1 on my call and i will call with any two cards as demonstrated



Player Name
Chips
ICM Equity
0-3500
1st, 0-336, 2nd, 0-378, 3rd, 0-244, 4th, 0-042, 5th, 0-000
0-0397
1st, 0-033, 2nd, 0-053, 3rd, 0-125, 4th, 0-789, 5th, 0-000
0-4316
1st, 0-475, 2nd, 0-344, 3rd, 0-160, 4th, 0-021, 5th, 0-000
0-1788
1st, 0-156, 2nd, 0-225, 3rd, 0-471, 4th, 0-148, 5th, 0-000


Okay so if he wins, his equity increases to 0-4316

So for the less poker literate people amongst us, here are the numbers again

If he folds, his equity is 0-2304
If he moves in, his equity is 45% 0-0, and 55% 0-4316 which equals 0-23738, So I guess he does have to go all in, but its very close

oh, and he only finds a hand that can go to centre 3-5% of the time

Still think my reraise with 95s isn't the NUTZ?


ps, L67C - You can be my wingman anytime, Hope to see/meet you at wsop or in a major tourney sometime, Come up and intro yourself, and we will get drunk and chase girls together
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Posted 12/28/2009 2:13 AM


Supreme Being
Supreme Being

Group: Mentors
Active: Yesterday @ 5:39 PM
Posts: 4,506
nh gg



Thanks to going to this effort Dave.

These types of calculations are not rocket science, but they are a bit time consuming, and members here definitely can benefit a great deal from understanding their implications.



-------------------------

Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo

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Posted 12/28/2009 12:55 PM


Supreme Being
Supreme Being

Group: Forum Members
Active: Yesterday @ 10:09 PM
Posts: 5,385
wow is all i can say about that just shows my immediate thoughts were this is an instafold lol this is where forums have and continue to make me and my game better this really is a couple of levels up on my normal thinking scale but is where i aspire to be thanks to all some great posts and thx David for taking time out to answer this











Ive got something to say, its better to burn out than fade away
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Posted 12/28/2009 7:21 PM


Supreme Being
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Active: 2/5/2010
Posts: 2,033

ps, L67C - You can be my wingman anytime, Hope to see/meet you at wsop or in a major tourney sometime, Come up and intro yourself, and we will get drunk and chase girls together

Haha, cheers David. Good solid post too. I'm at the Aussie Millions soon...I'll say hello if I see you there.

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Posted 1/2/2010 9:52 AM
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Look forward to it. Am here in Melbourne already. See you soon.
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